The Great Geopolitical Chessboard of 2024

“2024. Politically it is the Voldemort of years. The annus horribilis. The year that must not be named.” In a world that is reshaping the global geopolitical order, we sure are doing things that prove otherwise. The world in 2024 stands on a precipice of an unprecedented geopolitical turbulence as we continue to face new challenges every day, each one increasingly more complex and interconnected than the one before. The icy tensions in the East Asia, the volatile unrest in the Middle East, the energy crisis in Europe, the political upheaval sweeping South America with the return of El Niño, melting of glaciers in Antarctica, escalating conflicts and humanitarian disasters in Africa, all the continents and the global stage is fraught with instability. In the realm of digitalisation, cybersecurity threats loom large, and the risk for cyberattacks is every increasing. With the tensions in Red-China Sea, potential blockages in the trade route through Suez Canal, Russia vs. Ukraine war, which is now in its third year, wars in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, and the US- China tensions, some of the biggest issues are leading to what we see as a global recession geopolitically.

The lessons learnt from the Second World War remain concrete. Peace agreements were signed, treaties were made, international regulatory bodies were formed, all in order to ensure geopolitical stability among the 195 nations that exist on this planet. The world order was meticulously restructured to prevent another catastrophe on the scale of World War II. Yet here we are again, headlining in news every day, the world at the brink of another World War, a war that will destroy the world. Well, not just one but the world is at the brink of many outbreaks, creating a damage that will be too costly to repair. The foundations that were laid for peace and stability seem to be cracking under the weight of escalating tensions, economic disparities, and political rivalries. The interconnectedness of our global economy and globalisation means that now conflicts in one region can have far-reaching consequences, disrupting lives and livelihoods across continents.

2024 has been a tumultuous year, politically, globally, and economically. With over 70 countries conducting elections this year, this year is of stark importance for defining the new world order. “In the beginning of 2024, 1 out of every 7 human was exposed to an ongoing conflict in some region or the other” (ACLED Index). As this year dawned, the geopolitical landscape was already fraught with tension. “Over 165,273 political violence events were recorded worldwide as of July 2024, marking a 15% increase from the previous 12 months (July 2023 to June 2024).” The situation in Eastern Europe was the epicentre of escalating conflict as Russia's assertive actions in Ukraine intensified as a renewed military offensive that pushed deeper into Ukrainian territory. This ongoing conflict not only resulted in humanitarian crises but has also disrupted key supply chains, particularly in the energy and agricultural sectors as Russia is the 3^rd major oil producer in the world. Europe's reliance on Russian gas has prompted a shift towards renewable energy sources and alternative suppliers.

In February 2024, the Biden administration imposed a new round of sanctions on the Chinese technology companies which strained the U.S.- China relationship. March saw a significant escalation of wars in the Middle East, with conflicts in Syria and the Iranian-backed militias clashed with U.S. forces which led to numerous unwanted casualties and fragile balance of power in the region. The Middle East became a volatile region with multiple hotspots that threaten the global stability and safety. May saw rise in political instabilities in African nations like Sudan and Ethiopia. In Sudan, a military coup ousted the transitional government and dissolved the civilian rule and declared a state of emergency, plunging the country into chaos. Ethiopia struggled with the conflict in Tigray and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

The first half of 2024 had been a period of intense geopolitical activity, with conflicts, diplomatic struggles, and global challenges dominating the international stage. From Eastern Europe to East Asia, the Middle East to Africa, the geopolitical landscape was marked by instability and uncertainty. As our nations navigate these complex issues, the need for strategic diplomacy and international cooperation is becoming more apparent, therefore addressing the need to reevaluate the world order. “We live in a more shock-prone world,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva recently told reporters at a briefing in Washington. “And we need the strength of the collective to deal with shocks to come.”

The question we must ask ourselves is: Have we truly learned from history, or are we doomed to repeat it?